2022-05-21
2022-05-20
Notes from https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099748064/baby-infant-formula-shortages
infant formula industry
The Abbott manufacturing facility in Sturgis, Michigan
Abbott Nutrition is the firm behind it
manufactured baby formula
supplied as much as one-fifth of all the infant formula in the USA.
The formula produced by this plant was suspected to be contaminated which led to a recall
They shuttered it
It s a critical supplier of specialized formula for infants with allergies and other health conditions that require a particular diet.
JBS
FDA Commissioner Robert Califf
Formula makers are regulated by the federal government
The federal government is the biggest customer of formula makers.
About half of all formula sold in the U.S. is paid for by the Department of Agriculture, through its Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC).
WIC contract
Abbott has the WIC monopoly in about two-thirds of all states
There are 17.5% tariffs on imported infant formula
it will take about two weeks to restart production at Abbott's Sturgis plant and another six to eight weeks to bring that plant to full capacity
market research firm IRI
Notes from https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/tesla-removed-sp-500-esg-index-autopilot-discrimination-concerns-2022-05-18/
S&P 500 ESG Index
oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX)
Tesla pioneered EVs and expanded into battery storage for electric grids and solar-power systems
Margaret Dorn, S&P Dow Jones Indices' head of ESG indices for North America
S&P Dow Jones Indices is majority-owned by S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
Other big ESG ratings agencies
Sustainalytics unit of Morningstar Inc
Notes from https://www.indexologyblog.com/2022/05/17/the-rebalancing-act-of-the-sp-500-esg-index/
2022-05-16
Notes from https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-spends-big-as-stock-market-sells-off-11652589031?mod=hp_lead_pos6
Berkshire Hathaway bought 901,768 shares of Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
The SEC requires all institutional investors that manage more than $100 million to file the form 13F within 45 days of the end of each quarter.
Cash is dry powder
YTD energy stocks are the best-performing group in the S&P 500
Chevron (CVX) is up 43% YTD
OccidentalPetroleum (OXY) is up 121% YTD
S&P 500 is down 16% YTD
Energy stocks are likely to be an inflation hedge
2022-05-15
2022-05-13
Notes from https://www.wsj.com/articles/warnings-from-the-crypto-currency-crash-stablecoin-liquidity-terrausd-11652390321?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
article published date | 2022-05-12
$200 billion in crypto assets have blown up in 24 hours
stablecoin TerraUSD collapsed
Stablecoins are supposed to hold a fixed peg and let investors seamlessly trade crypto assets
TerraUSD is linked to another crypto currency - the token Luna
Examples of stablecoins - TerraUSD, Tether
Coinbase, the crypto exchange
Coinbase customers would be unsecured creditors in the event of a bankruptcy
Crypto market is $2.9 trillion in Nov 2021. It was $500 billion in Nov 2020.
junk bond prices are falling as concerns mount that some companies may struggle to roll over their debt
European Central Bank recently warned banks to hold extra capital against leveraged loans, which are sensitive to interest rates, to cover potential losses.
About $800 billion in leveraged loans in the U.S. were issued last year
Debt covenants and market discipline were already deteriorating before the pandemic
the oracles of the Eccles building
Notes from https://www.wsj.com/articles/crash-of-terrausd-shakes-crypto-there-was-a-run-on-the-bank-11652371839?mod=hp_lead_pos7
TerrsUSD swelled to $18 billion.
TerraUSD's sister cryptocurrency, Luna
TerraUSD, which is known by the ticker UST
Jim Greco, a partner at crypto quantitative investment firm F9 Research, was celebrating his birthday at Manhattan’s Le Bernardin
Anchor Protocol is a crypto bank created by developers at Terraform Labs
Investors had deposited $14 billion of TerraUSD in Anchor as of late last week.
Terraform Labs - Mr. Kwon's firm
Luna lost nearly $20 billion in value
a central bank in an emerging-markets country might spend dollar reserves to protect its currency
Mr. Kwon, a Stanford University graduate who worked at Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.
“My dearest creation named after my greatest invention.”
Examples of stablecoins - TerraUSD, tether, and USD Coin
2022-05-12
2022-05-05
2022-05-02
2022-04-28
2022-04-27
Notes from https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-are-i-bonds-everything-you-need-to-know-to-earn-nearly-10-interest-11650543039
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days?srnd=premium
Losses from Archegos implosion
Credit Suisse Group AG lost $4.7 billion
Nomura Holdings Inc. lost $2 billion.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. lost $300 million
Goldman, Deutsche Bank AG, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo - no losses.
penthouse overlooking Manhattan’s Central Park
hillside chalet at the Yellowstone Club
private jets
a “Tiger cub,” an alumnus of Tiger Management, the hedge fund powerhouse that Julian Robertson founded
ViacomCBS, GSX Techedu, and Shopify
Media conglomerates ViacomCBS and Discovery
four Chinese stocks: GSX Techedu, Baidu, Iqiyi, and Vipshop
arbitrage on collateralized bundles of obscure financial contracts
popular themes such as cord cutting, virtual education, and online shopping
family, business, and charity - the Grace & Mercy Foundation
Sung Kook Hwang immigrated to the U.S. from South Korea in 1982 and took the English name Bill.
Tiger Management, run by Julian Robertson, became one of the first widely famous hedge funds. Many former Tiger employees went on to open their own shops. Hwang’s onetime colleagues at Tiger Management include: Andreas Halvorsen, Viking Global Management; Philippe Laffont, Coatue Management; and Chase Coleman, Tiger Global Management
a key lesson: to live with losses
Tiger closed in 2001
investing only in Korean, Japanese, and Chinese companies that generated all of their revenue domestically
a group called Liberty in North Korea, or Link, that has helped about 1,300 North Koreans escaping the regime.
the Financial Services Ministry, a group affiliated with New York’s Redeemer Presbyterian Church that connects Christians in finance
Paul Gojkovich, a former director at Merrill Lynch
U.S. rules prevent individual investors from buying securities with more than 50% of the money borrowed on margin. No such limits apply to hedge funds and family offices.
2x leverage = $1 million borrowed for every $1 million of capital
In a typical swap agreement, a bank gives its client exposure to an underlying asset, such as a stock. While the client gains—or loses—from any changes in price, the bank shows up in filings as the registered holder of the shares.
Cursing was not tolerated in Archego's offices. It is a policy borrowed from Robertson’s Tiger.
Uniqlo, the fast-fashion brand, because it’s cheap and comfortable
hedge fund running a similar strategy would lever up two to two-and-a-half times
a portfolio short, a broad bet against the stock market, often made through an options or futures contract on the S&P 500.
2022-04-26
2022-04-21
2022-04-19
2022-04-18
2022-04-06
2022-04-05
2022-04-04
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-04/elon-musk-s-passive-stake-in-twitter-belies-his-big-influence?srnd=premium
Shareholders who intend to remain “passive” – those who don’t seek to influence or change control of a company – file a shorter form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, called a 13G.
Those angling for board seats or seismic shakeups typically file a longer and more in-depth form, a 13D, within 10 days of buying their stake.
A 13D requires more disclosure – shareholders have to say what their plans are, and how they’re financing the purchase of the stock.
The rule applies to anyone acquiring 5% or more of a public company’s stock.
Musk announced his 9.2% stake in Twitter by filing the 13G
Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey are friends
Musk has 80 million followers on Twitter
Unlike Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Snap Inc., Twitter’s founders don’t have special voting control over its future
Jared Birchall, the head of Elon Musk's family office
2022-04-01
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/russian-bond-arbitrage-is-minting-near-guaranteed-profits?srnd=premium
relative-value trade
A negative-basis trade involves buying beaten down government or corporate bonds along with corresponding credit-default swaps, which insure the debtholder in the event of non-payment.
pay out at par quoted recently at 80 cents on the dollar
Rob Citrone’s $2.6 billion Discovery Capital Management
bought long-dated Russian government bonds at about 20 cents on the dollar, while also hedging with one-year CDS at a price of around 60 cents
position accounts for a couple percentage points of Discovery’s portfolio
Aurelius Capital Management, GoldenTree Asset Management and Silver Point Capital
H2O Asset Management has been adding to its Russian debt holdings
distressed-debt veterans - a group known for its combative personalities and aggressive tactics
Volumes in Russian corporate bonds soared to their highest levels in two years last month
trading of Russian credit-default swaps has surged, dwarfing other single-name contracts
Bond and CDS packages were being offered by sales desks for as much as 95 cents on the dollar
Marathon Asset Management’s Bruce Richards
half of Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves are frozen
Clearstream, one of the biggest clearinghouses in the world
Jay Newman, the hedge fund veteran behind Elliott Management’s 15-year battle with Argentina following that nation’s default
Specialist investors, crossover investors
hedge-fund consultant Macro Intelligence 2 Partners
setting up offshore structures in order to buy Russian assets
2022-03-27
Notes from
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2021ltr.pdf
Warren Buffett's 2021 letter to Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders
Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.
In 2021, Berkshire's U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets are $158 billion
In 2021, Berkshire paid $3.3 billion in federal income taxes.
Compare this to $402 billion which is the total corporate income-tax receipts as reported by the U.S. Treasury.
“I gave at the office”
In 1955, Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses.
Both of them are venerable New England textile companies
Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway)
The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.
Berkshire's insurance float is \$147 billion. It increased by \$9 billion last year. In the past two years, it increased by 25%.
Ajit Jain was hired in 1986.
Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.
Berkshire owns 5.55% of Apple, up from 5.39% a year earlier.
Each 0.1% of Apple's 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million.
In 2021, Apple paid $785 million of dividends to Berkshire.
BNSF had earnings of $6 billion in 2021. This figure is calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation.
Bull markets breed bloviated bull
BHE earned $4 billion in 2021.
David Sokol and Greg Abel
Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler.
Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers
Berkshire has $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents
Of this, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills with maturity < 1 year. This is 0.5% of publicly-held U.S. national debt.
Berkshire will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and cash equivalents
Warren Buffett keeps 80% of his net worth in equities but he prefers it to be 100%.
Examples of productive investments - stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells
During the past two years, Berkshire repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion.
As of February 23, 2022, since yearend Berkshire repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion.
Paul Andrews died last year. He was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire.
purchasing agent
distribute small electronic components
TTI now employs 8,043
John Roach - a mutual friend of Paul Andrews and Warren Buffett
Deb Bosanek - assistant of Warren Buffett
Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF
“secrets” are catnip to kids
the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.
2022-03-21
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-21/china-plane-crash-update-132-people-on-boeing-737-feared-dead?srnd=premium
the Civil Aviation Administration of China
China Eastern flight
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc.,
India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA)
India DGCA Chief Arun Kumar
Air India Express is the low-cost overseas unit of Air India Ltd.,
Air India Express and SpiceJet Ltd. operate 737 jets.
Vistara is the local affiliate of Singapore Airlines Ltd.
Vistara operate some 737 aircraft previously used by now-defunct Jet Airways India Ltd.
Aviation Safety Network
Boeing 737-800 NG model
NG = Next Generation
best safety records among all aircraft
11 fatal accidents out of more than 7,000 planes delivered since 1997
There are 4,502 Boeing 737-800 NGs in service globally, including 950 in the U.S.
Boeing 737 Max was subjected to a global grounding after two deadly crashes
The British Airline Pilots Association (BALPA)
2022-03-09
2022-03-03
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-02-28/which-u-s-european-companies-are-pulling-out-of-russia-after-ukraine-invasion?srnd=premium
Russia’s largest foreign investor, BP Plc
state-controlled Rosneft
BP announced on Sunday that it would exit its 20% stake in Rosneft. This result in a $25 billion write-off and cut its global oil and gas production by a third.
Shell owns 50% of the Salym Petroleum Development, which last year earned the company $700 million of adjusted earnings.
state-controlled Gazprom
Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility
Nord Stream 2 pipeline project
Kwasi Kwarteng, the U.K. business secretary
Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden
Equinor ASA is Norway’s biggest energy company and majority owned by the state
France’s TotalEnergies SE is involved in major liquefied natural gas projects in Russia
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the largest in the world
2022-03-02
2022-03-01
2022-02-25
2022-02-22
2022-02-21
2022-02-18
Notes from https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-11643121821
Nord Stream 2 is a natural-gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany.
The pipeline is 764-mile long.
U.S. thinks that the pipeline will strengthen Russia’s grip on the European energy market and weaken Ukraine.
Germany is a NATO member.
Germany is the world’s biggest buyer of Russian gas.
Germany draws more than half of its gas supply from Russia
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
2022-02-14
2022-01-19
2022-01-14
2022-01-05
2022-01-04
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/charlie-munger-s-daily-journal-nearly-doubles-alibaba-holding?srnd=markets-vp
Daily Journal Corp., a newspaper and software business
The Chairman of its Board of Directors is Charlie Munger
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/u-s-schools-close-in-droves-as-omicron-drives-staff-shortages?srnd=premium
In New Jersey, 30% of schools had switched to virtual learning as of Jan. 3.
Among 1.4 million K-12 students, infections have more than doubled in three weeks, to 11 per 1,000 pupils.
Staff positives have quadrupled, to 24 per 1,000, according to state data.
Notes from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/denmark-dumps-7-billion-in-kroner-on-fx-market-to-protect-peg?srnd=markets-vp
Denmark’s central bank sold 47 billion kroner ($7.1 billion) last month to protect its euro peg, the biggest monthly currency intervention to weaken the krone in seven years.
With the sale, Denmark’s foreign currency reserves jumped to 529.8 billion kroner at the end of December 2021.
The bank uses currency interventions to steer the krone in a tight band to the euro and changes its interest rates when those interventions become too great.
Its benchmark deposit rate is already at minus 0.6%.
Denmark has had negative rates longer than any other country.